Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Predictions

I suspect most pundits are predicting that mix member proportional (MMP) will be defeated in the Ontario referendum today. As my final article before the close of the polls I will provide my own predictions. In the next three days I will also write three final articles: an assessment of the 'no' campaign, an assessment of the 'yes' campaign, and an assessment of the Citizen's Assembly.

First, I too am predicting a defeat for MMP. While this is only a guess, I would estimate that those voting in favour of MMP will total 46% (+/- 3%). Geographically, I believe that the 905 belt and 416 area will show the strongest support for MMP. Look for numbers in the low to mid 50s for these ridings. Urban areas outside of the 905/416 area will be closer, probably around 50/50. The exception will be the urban areas of Northern Ontario. Expect a big defeat for MMP there; expect the numbers to be in the low 40s. Also expect a big defeat for MMP in rural Ontario; those in favour of MMP will be lucky if they top the 40% mark in these parts of the Province. The overall pros and cons of MMP did not balance out well in the eyes of most of those living in Northern and rural Ontario.

As for the general election, I have not provided comment thus far. However, being the political junkie that I am I have to make some predictions: Liberals 43%, PCs 33%, NDP 19% (all +/- 2%). I also predict that Don Valley West will end John Tory's misery tonight and will not elect him.

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