Friday, October 5, 2007

Mixed Member Proportional Headed For Big Defeat

The most recent SES/Sun Media poll indicates that mixed member proportional (MMP) is heading to a big defeat next week. Of decided voters who will cast a ballot, 64% intend on voting for the current system and 36% intent on voting for MMP. That is a big drop from an Angus Reid poll of nearly a month ago that I covered here that indicated 56% would choose to keep the existing system while 44% would choose MMP. Momentum is very important in politics, and it would appear that not only is MMP polling at about 1/3 support but it also does not have any positive momentum.

It is not over yet, though. It will be interesting to see if the undecided split the same as the decided or whether they will be more inclined to vote for change. Even if they are, it will still mean certain defeat if the SES poll is accurate, but they may be able to climb higher than 1/3 support.


Lord Kitchener's Own said...

Everyone wave goddbye to reform.

If these numbers hold up, my bet is 15-20 years before the politicians even bring this up again.

Anonymous said...

But if those numbers hold up, doesn't that suggest that the majority of people don't WANT reform just yet? Or are we going to follow the Quebec sovereigntist model of a decade ago pining for annual referendums until we get our way?

MMP Yeah You Know Me said...

Angus Reid released a new poll last night. Link Above. Among Decided Referendum Voters: 58% status quo vs. 42% MMP. 25% are undecided and 6% would spoil the ballot.

David said...

Lord Kitchener: yeah, because replacing a bad system with a bad system is such a ringing endorsement of electoral reform.

I'm all for electoral reform. I'm opposed to MMP, and will vote accordingly.



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