Saturday, October 13, 2007

How Did The Citizens Assembly Get It So Wrong?

It would seem reasonable that if you randomly selected 103 people from across the province, one per riding (plus the chair), and adjusted for age and sex, that their conclusions would be very close to those that the population as a whole would arrive at. And yet, the general population soundly rejected their proposal for mixed member proportional (MMP). How did they get it so wrong?

Let me begin by giving a big thank you to all those people who sat on the Citizens' Assembly. They did a lot of work on our behalf. However, they were far off the mark on what Ontarians wanted. In the dieing days of the referendum, members of the Assembly were speaking out that the reason voters were rejecting their proposal was because the government failed to provide an adequate education campaign. However, polling data showed that those most opposed to MMP were also the ones who knew the most about it; and conversely, those most in favour of MMP were the ones who knew the least about it.

From near the very beginning of the Assembly's work, one of the "guiding principles" for the Citizens' Assembly was, "Fairness of Representation". They defined this fairness, in part, as, "parties hold seats in proportion to the votes they receive". By accepting that definition of fairness the outcome was predetermined to be some form of proportional representation. And I believe that is where they got off track.

You see, that has never been a big issue with the majority of Ontarians - and the referendum helped prove that. Many political scientists have been bothered by that, but my personal experience has been that many political scientists support parties that would benefit from MMP (i.e.: NDP, Green Party, etc.) There is another interesting analysis that goes along with that. There were only five ridings where a majority of voters supported MMP. Of those five ridings, the NDP won four. The fifth has been described by political commentators of all stripes as a natural NDP riding with a popular Liberal MPP.

So it was inevitable that the Citizens' Assembly would pick some form of proportional representation. What they should have spent their time on is finding reforms that one could clearly demonstrated had majority support. Instead they went through a political science project that resulted in reforms the public never asked for, never supported, and ultimately rejected.

111 comments:

CT said...

The fact that people thought they understood the proposal and its rationale doesn't mean they actually did. The vacuum of information created when No MMP successfully blocked further printing of the Assembly's recommendation was filled with misinformation. How could YOU get it so wrong? Do we even know who you are?

Anonymous said...

"polling data showed that those most opposed to MMP were also the ones who knew the most about it; and conversely, those most in favour of MMP were the ones who knew the least about it."

Do you have a link to or a reference for that polling data? Not that I don't believe it (I made a similar argument elsewhere before the referendum) but I wouldn't mind seeing the data.

Mixed Member Proportional said...

It's true, those who thought they understood MMP may not have. Do you have any data, however, to show that is true - or at least to what level. Otherwise, the idea that the people who voted against really didn't understand the proposal is only a hypothesis that fits your opinion. Here is the link to the polling that shows the more people knew about MMP the more likely they were to be against MMP:
http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2007-10-08%20GMCTV%20Ont%20Election%20W3.pdf

P.S.: No, you don't even know who I am.

Anonymous said...

The yes side launched a misinformation campaign that confused voters. They did this to hide the BIG flaws of mmp. Then they have the nerve to say voters were confused. If they were confused it was because of the yes side!

Anonymous said...

MMP,
Thanks for the data.

While it's true that just because someone says that they're know 'a lot' about the proposed reforms doesn't make it true, I don't think it's safe to assume that they just voted for the status quo because they didn't know the other system (if you wanted to take that argument to the other extreme, you could say that if FPTP is so obviously flawed that a voter would tend to pick an alternative regardless of their understanding). I also don't understand why it's so hard to believe that a rational, educated voter can prefer the current system to the one proposed. In fact, I can think of rational reasons to vote to keep the current system even if MMP was clearly the better option! I think it's insulting to the electorate to suggest that the reason that FPTP was retained was uneducated voters.

Wilf Day said...

A perceptive comment from the trenches here:

"Westlake estimates her group of some 40 "Vote for MMP" volunteers distributed an estimated 18,000 MMP pamphlets and 14,000 information booklets during the past five weeks.

But during the last week of the campaign, the "Vote for MMP" group noticed a significant shift in public attitudes. Westlake listened to people expressing concerns about "fringe parties" and making statements based on information she believed was misguided.

"We were at the Kingston Market on the Saturday of the holiday weekend and at the market the week before - and the shift was notable," Westlake said. "The week before, the debate was intelligent. It was exciting. It was how it should be. It was what I wished the whole campaign was like."

The referendum on MMP took a back seat to other issues during the campaign but people started to take notice after a number of Toronto newspapers published editorials opposing the proposed new system, Westlake said.

In hindsight, Westlake thinks the "Vote for MMP" group should have run a more negative campaign.

"We tried to promote the new [electoral] system but I'm wondering if perhaps it would have been better for us to dismantle the old one," Westlake said.

"After all, that's the politics we're used to."

http://www.thewhig.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=729237&auth=Ann+Lukits

Meanwhile, a new national poll shows "45 per cent said they would support a system of PR, 28 per cent said keep the current First Past the Post system, and 27 per cent didn't know. The poll shows significant support for a system of proportional representation in Ontario and Quebec, where, respectively, 46 per cent and 52 per cent said they would vote in support of PR if a national referendum were held in the next general election."

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php

Antony Hodgson said...

The most comprehensive and academically rigorous surveys showed more support for MMP amongst those most informed about both the process and proposal: 63% in favour. See full report in the Globe and Mail

http://www.rbcinvest.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/LAC/20071025/COONTARIO25/Headlines/headdex/headdexComment/3/3/7/

There are certainly reasons why some people might prefer FPTP to MMP, but MMP responds to some major concerns most people have about our current system. The question now is how to achieve these goals given the referendum defeat. I certainly wouldn't regard the outcome as an unconditional endorsement of the status quo.

Antony Hodgson said...

The URL I put in above appears to be truncated. Here's a TinyURL version:

http://tinyurl.com/2fcwcx

The professors who conducted the study were Fred Cutler (UBC) and Patrick Fournier (UdM).

Mixed Member Proportional said...

Thanks for the link. According to the article, they simulated a result based on increased knowledge of certain variables, though they don't state how they simulate those results. Assuming the simulation is accurate, it means that increased knowledge of those particular variables would result in increased support. What the result would be if there was increased knowledge of other variables, or all information for that matter, was not explored.

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